Fox News Power Rankings: Storm Clouds Gather For Democrats In The Northeast

Fox News Power Rankings: Storm Clouds Gather For Democrats In The Northeast

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As Election Day approaches, the Democratic outlook is bleak, with recent polls showing the New York governorship is also in jeopardy. In this issue of the Fox News Power Rankings, the five Republican races in the Northeast are swinging and there are signs of a potential rift in Oklahoma's gubernatorial election.

Congress: GOP continues to march to defeat majority, Senate still in the lead


2022 Democratic Power Rankings: Projected House Republican Leadership. Fox News © Fox News Democracy 2022 Power Rankings: House GOP Leadership Predictions. Fox News

Republicans will now have a 16 -seat majority in the House of Representatives for a total of 233 seats, with Democrats holding the remaining 202 seats. This is an increase from last week. This projection has a margin of error of about 17 seats, meaning Democrats or Republicans could win 17 more or fewer seats than the numbers shown in the calculations above.


Best business for both parties on Election Day. Fox News © Fox News The best case for both sides on Election Day. Fox News

The "best case" table now shows how the margin of error can be played either way. A big night for the Democrats will keep the party in power with 219 seats; The two-seat majority is slim, but enough to tire the GOP. A good night for Republicans would give them a 32-seat majority, or 249 seats.


For the GOP, that growth comes as the party gains success in national polls. Two weeks into October, our Fox News poll shows Republicans leading the poll among voters who say they will "definitely" vote in the midterms. A number of polls now reporting results among "certain" or "likely" voters show the GOP holding a slight lead. It comes at a time when millions of Americans are at the polls. Barring a surprise in late October, it's hard to see how the race for control of Congress could change course.

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Forecasts for the Senate elections show the GOP with a slight lead. Fox News © Fox News Senate election projections show the GOP with a slight lead. Fox News

There was no change in the Senate's view. A runoff between Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania Democratic Senators. Raphael Warnock and GOP challenger Herschel Walker are likely to be in Georgia as Election Day approaches.

New York: Gov. Kathy Hochul is struggling with her political life, endorsing Republican candidates across the state

Kathy Hochul is the current governor of New York, but she was never elected. The former lieutenant governor takes office in August 2021, replacing scandal-plagued former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has struggled to find his footing. On the one hand, Hochul has built better relationships with state legislatures and local governments (though Cuomo and former New York Mayor Bill de Blasio have set the bar very low). In turn, Hochule presided over a series of strict COVID-19 regulations amid the pandemic and had to replace his current governor after his first choice was jailed on bribery charges.

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Prediction of government elections across the country. Fox News © Fox News Gubernatorial election preview across the country. Fox News

Offense is the most important thing in this race and it's not even close. In a Quinnipiac poll released last week, 28 percent of voters said crime is New York's most pressing problem and inflation is close to 20 percent. Independent has also ranked the best edition with 10 points. Even in Hochul's base, crime is the second biggest problem, with 18% of Democrats citing it as their most pressing issue. Overall, polls give Hochul 50% support, just four points behind his opponent. Polls have consistently shown crime to be an issue in favor of Republicans this term, so Hochul is at risk.

His Republican challenger, Lee Zeldin, made crime a pillar of his campaign on "Fox & Friends," saying he would eliminate no-cash bail and law enforcement officers, among other criminal justice reforms. In turn, Hochul joined New York City Mayor Eric Adams last weekend in announcing 1,200 more police shifts a day to patrol the city's transit system, along with other strategies he said would reduce crime in America's most populous city. .

Hochul saw some important benefits. Voters in the cities and suburbs went Democratic, and the Empire State had enough numbers to take over the redder areas of the North. Zeld's vote to cancel the 2020 election and his support for former President Trump, who has a 60% unfavorable rating in the same Quinnipiac poll, will also limit his general election appeal. Hochul still has the upper hand in this race, but it's definitely competitive. New York moves from Solid D to Probable D.


There are 33 vacancies up for grabs from DPR. Fox News © Fox News 33 Cage seat remains up for grabs. Fox News

At the state level, the weak candidacy had an impact on House elections, one of the factors driving Republican turnover in New York's three districts.

We begin in New York's 22nd District, where John Katko's retirement has created an open rivalry between two retired military veterans, Democrat Francis Conol and Republican Brandon Williams. The district includes Syracuse and Rome, as well as some suburban and rural areas, and is a highly contested area of ​​the state. Both candidates ran strong campaigns, with Conol describing himself as a moderate on economic and energy independence, with Sen. Joe Manchin, DW.Va. and with Williams, to talk to voters about his experiences running a software company and advocating for them. I will understand their economic problems. A recent poll in Siena saw Williams lead the race by five points (45%-40%), and Hochule's weakness at the top of the ticket had the most pronounced effect on overseas territory. Ultimately, while Williams supports removing some abortion rights, the issue will likely be a focus of the campaign, and Williams says she does not support a national ban. The race remains very competitive, but New York's 22nd District is moving from Toss-Up to Lean R.

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Fox News' power rankings for this year's best House races. Fox News © Fox News Fox News power rankings for this year's House competition. Fox News

The movement in the Hudson Valley and the 17th district was one of the most Democratic in Congress. Sean Patrick Maloney has represented parts of the district since 2013 and is currently the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is tasked with keeping Democrats in power. A popular centrist, Maloney enters the race as the favorite, but his opponent, Mike Lawler, is running a strong campaign focused on inflation and crime. He has also distanced himself from the MAGA movement in this suburban district, which elected President Biden in 2020. Maloney is the only one 'currently', but much of the territory is new to him post-Reconstruction. The top GOP caucus has poured millions of dollars into the race, which both parties say is highly competitive. Neither side has the overall advantage, so the race goes from Lean D to Toss-Up.

Eventually, two more Republican races flipped in the Northeast, though both remained in the Democratic column. First, New York's 4th District is one of several districts on Long Island. Former Hempstead Mayor Laura Gillen, a Democrat, will face former NYPD detective and fire chief Anthony D'Esposito, a Republican. The latter route is particularly crime-prone, and the race is becoming more competitive as New York voters prioritize all other issues. Gillen has spoken out about schools and workers' rights and has spoken out in favor of abortion, using his opponent's controversial statements about his support for a national ban. The race goes from Opportunity D to Lean D.


The Democracy 2022 power ranking shows the projected Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Fox News © Fox News Democracy 2022 Power rankings show predictions of Republican leadership in the House of Representatives. Fox News

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In the Garden State, Andy Kim is a Democrat and former national security adviser running for re-election in the 3rd Congressional District. Under the new line, central New Jersey will deliver double-digit votes for Biden in 2020. The threat comes from Bob Healey Jr., president of a local real estate and yacht manufacturing company. He has benefited from heavy outside spending in the race, with more than $650,000 contributed to him so far and another $2.1 million against Kim. Most of the money came from Garden State Advance, a Super PAC that received a large contribution from Healey's mother. New Jersey has proven to be no liberal stronghold in the 2021 gubernatorial election, with both candidates battling for every vote. The race goes from Opportunity D to Lean D.

Oklahoma: Democrats find loopholes in gubernatorial race as local issues take center stage

Joy Hofmeister has been Oklahoma's Superintendent of Public Instruction since 2015. She was also a Republican at the time, but announced last year that she would turn to the Democratic Party to challenge the Governor. vs. Kevin Stitt. What many observers have written off as a back-and-forth campaign has become a flashpoint for Democrats.


The Fox News Power Rating shows how some states will elect governors. Fox News © Fox News The Fox News power rankings show how some states will elect governors. Fox News

Hofmeister is an effective communicator who sets himself apart from the national figures in his party, who are largely unknown in this ruby-red country. However, the speed of his voice can be attributed to Stitt's hostility towards Native Americans. Early in his first term, Stitt tried to renegotiate a gambling contract with the tribes, they rejected the offer, and it became his worst nightmare ever since. Although they have traditionally shied away from endorsements, the Big Five threw their weight behind Hofmeister at this month's press conference.

Stitt remains the clear favorite thanks to his dominant Republican base and $4 million in fundraising, but the race is competitive. Oklahoma moves from Solid R to Probable R.

Election day is only 2 weeks away

The countdown to Election Day has begun, but voters have already cast their ballots. To date, more than 5 million Americans have voted by mail or in person. Turnout exceeded all expectations in Georgia, but looked poor in Nevada, two critical states going into the final stage. As Democracy 2022 continues, our reporters travel with campaigns and talk to voters in this state and across the country. Tune in to Fox News Channel and check back next Tuesday for the latest Power Ratings announcements.

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