We'll get the Reserve Bank 's final interest rate decision at 2:30pm ET, about half an hour before certain races in Melbourne.
As noted in the previous article, the surprisingly strong September quarter CPI made an RBA cash rate hike a better bet than anything else in today's four columns. The main tension is how far he will go.
At its October meeting, the bank surprised most economists with a 25 basis point hike, ending a streak of four "extremely large" double hikes. By slowing growth, the RBA became the first central bank to do so.
But after a jump in inflation (especially in core inflation, the shortened average closely watched by the RBA), the chances are higher; quarter point today.
Dividing the difference by 40 bp will produce a cleaner number. A number like 3% is rounder than 2.85% or 3.1%, although aesthetics are not important to the RBA board.
However, we will meet or exceed a 275 basis point rate hike in the second half of 1994, the fastest central bank tightening ever.
Analysts such as ANZ chief economist Katherine Birch will focus on the changes in the explanation accompanied by RBA chief Philip Lowe .
Whether he will continue to stress the importance of a "balanced economy" or return to tougher language such as the need to "reduce inflation at all costs," echoing the tone of some of his foreign counterparts, Birk said .
Both ANZ and Westpac plan to raise the RBA rate to 3.85% in the first half of 2023.
According to RateCity , for a typical homeowner paying principal and interest on a 25-year, $500,000 mortgage, rate hikes starting in May (assuming they pass) will add another $1,059 per month.
So today's pain probably won't be the last.