We'll get the Reserve Bank 's final interest rate decision at 2:30pm ET, about half an hour before certain races in Melbourne.
As noted in the previous article, the surprisingly strong September quarter CPI made an RBA cash rate hike a better bet than anything else in today's four columns. The main tension is how far he will go.
At its October meeting, the bank surprised most economists with a 25 basis point hike, ending a streak of four "extremely large" double hikes. By slowing growth, the RBA became the first central bank to do so.
But after a jump in inflation (especially in core inflation, the shortened average closely watched by the RBA), the chances are higher; quarter point today.
Dividing the difference by 40 bp will produce a cleaner number. A number like 3% is rounder than 2.85% or 3.1%, although aesthetics are not important to the RBA board.
However, we will meet or exceed a 275 basis point rate hike in the second half of 1994, the fastest central bank tightening ever.
© Provided by The Guardian . Today the Reserve Bank intends to raise interest rates, but by how much? Photo: Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images
Analysts such as ANZ chief economist Katherine Birch will focus on the changes in the explanation accompanied by RBA chief Philip Lowe .
Whether he will continue to stress the importance of a "balanced economy" or return to tougher language such as the need to "reduce inflation at all costs," echoing the tone of some of his foreign counterparts, Birk said .
Both ANZ and Westpac plan to raise the RBA rate to 3.85% in the first half of 2023.
According to RateCity , for a typical homeowner paying principal and interest on a 25-year, $500,000 mortgage, rate hikes starting in May (assuming they pass) will add another $1,059 per month.
So today's pain probably won't be the last.