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Commentary: A Fight For Power In Sacramento Tests Boundaries Of Campaign Finance Law

Commentary: A Fight For Power In Sacramento Tests Boundaries Of Campaign Finance Law

Assembly candidate Rick Chavez Zboer (left) speaks to Congressman Robert Rivas (right) at a campaign event in Beverly Hills October 23. (Dania Maxwell/Los Angeles Times) © (Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times) House of Representatives candidate Rick Chavez Zboer (left) speaks to Congressman Robert Rivas (right) during a campaign event in Beverly Hills October 23. (Dania Maxwell/Los Angeles Times)

Twenty-two years ago, as frustration over the influx of money into California politics grew, the powerful state legislature convinced voters to approve campaign finance reform. This limits the amount that donors can donate to individual candidates and makes political parties the main intermediaries in government campaigns.

The idea is that California Democrats and Republicans will work with legislative leaders to decide which candidate to favor and then pour in money to help them win. And since then, more or less so.

But now, fueled by simmering discontent in Sacramento, a new generation of lawmakers are testing the boundaries of the law, touring their party and raising funds for their own campaign to change the speaker of the House of Representatives, one of the most powerful positions in the country of California. political.

Members of the House of Representatives are divided on whether to replace President Anthony Rendon, a Los Angeles County Democrat who has been in office since 2016 longer than any other seat since the 1990s. Rendon turned down Rivas' challenge this spring due to an awkward dead end, but is looking for a rematch. Two days after the Nov. 8 election, House Democrats will convene in Sacramento to elect a leader.

Tension has more to do with leadership style and personality than politics or politics. Both Rivas and Rendon are supported by both moderates and progressives, and also have strong voting records for a bill supported by labor unions and environmentalists.

Rendon's leadership was very careless, passing important decisions to the chairman of the committee and refusing to include his name in the law. The lack of leadership created chaos that angered some MPs. Rivas said his style would be more active. And with a term that allows him to serve up to another eight years (since Rendon will be expelled in 2024), Rivas presents himself as a visionary leader.

At stake is the power to determine what law is in place in California and how the state spends about $300 billion annually. Contests for the presidency are usually confidential, but it is public. Each has consultants and public relations and political operations specialists who help elect Democrats in the assembly.

This is where an unusual campaign finance maneuver takes place. Rivas and the other 18 members of the assembly poured almost $900,000 into a political action committee to elect the people they hope will support Rivas for president. The Democratic Leadership Coalition PAC purchased email ads to support 15 parliamentary candidates, and Rivas traveled the state to help them.

Typically, this office is held by the incumbent president, who is funded by the California Democratic Party, some of which is donated by members of the Democratic House. But lawmakers who support Rivas fear that Rendon will use the money they gave the party to persuade candidates to support him in the presidential election.

Rendon's supporters see the PKK as proof that Rivas is trying to buy votes. They note that the new PAC spends most of its money helping Democratic candidates as well as supporting Democrats in swing constituencies.

And they fear that Rivas is connected to a wealthy donor network called Governance for California, which is made up mostly of venture capitalists and philanthropists from the Gulf and is run by former governor adviser Arnold Schwarzenegger. While its mission is to counter the influence of Sacramento's social unions, the network contributes to legislators across the ideological spectrum, including Labor supporters. He made large donations to Rivas, hired his brother Rick Rivas as a political advisor, and helped Rivas supporters race for speakers.

Bill Wong, a Democratic political adviser and longtime Rendon ally, said the flow of money from the government to California donors to Rivas supporters is "selling our politics."

But isn't politics sold? Many billionaires also donate to the Democratic Party of California, as well as to labor unions and corporations fighting for lawmakers to choose the next speaker. The group spent six times as much on rally racing as Rivas' ally PAC had collected. And the biggest money of all in the general election was independent, interest-funded, and indirect candidate spending, which far exceeded that of the Democrats and the GAC by $44 million.

Rendon said in a statement that fundraising through the Democratic Party was the best way to help candidates as delegates vote at the annual convention on who should receive full party support.

A provision of the Campaign Finance Reform Act, passed by voters in 2000, states that candidates cannot contribute money to an independent spending committee to support or oppose another candidate. However, in 2014, a California High Court judge ruled that the provision was unconstitutional because the Supreme Court's Citizens United ruling gave the group the right to spend an unlimited amount on independent spending.

California's political watchdog, the Commission on Fair Political Practice, said the law is still in effect because it has not been struck down by lawmakers or an appeals court.

I asked Jessica Levinson, a professor at Loyola Law School who specializes in campaign finance law, what was causing this mess. A generation ago, he said, there was more optimism that new laws could limit campaign spending, but "now it's just free for everyone when it comes to money in politics."

While it's strange to see current MPs breaking rules that their predecessors called "proper campaign finance reform," it seems likely that MPs who have lost faith in their leader could create their own channel for campaign spending. The more important question is how a divided congregation will recover from such a deep loss of faith in its leadership.

This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.

For men – SNL

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Turkey Received $28 Billion From Unclear Origins In The First 8 Months Of The Year, Per The FT. The Country’s Finance Minister Says Some Of It Was Legitimate Cash From …

Turkey Received  Billion From Unclear Origins In The First 8 Months Of The Year, Per The FT. The Country's Finance Minister Says Some Of It Was Legitimate Cash From ...

Turkish Finance Minister Nuredin Nebati told the FT that her country was "working carefully in the global financial system." Adem Altan/AFP/Getty Images © Adem Altan/AFP/Getty Images Turkey's Finance Minister Nuredin Nebati told the FT that her country was "working carefully in the international financial system". Adem Altan/AFP/Getty Images

  • The FT reported that Turkey received a record amount of $28 billion between January and August.
  • The Turkish Finance Minister believes that unknown revenues from tourism make up a large part of this income.
  • However, all imports are legal and legal, said Turkish Finance Minister Nurettin Nebati.

The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that between January and August this year, Turkey received a record amount of $28 billion. However, the Turkish Finance Minister dismissed these concerns.

Turkish Finance Minister Nuredin Nebti told FTA that "tourism revenue of unknown origin" is a large part of what Turkey's Central Bank classifies as "net errors and shortfalls" on its balance sheet. The allegation, the FT reports.

He told media that some of the money came from Russian tourists who had to use cash because they were unable to enter the international financial payment system due to the ban.

Nebti told FTA that relations between Turkey and Russia were only "good neighbours".

According to the Turkish Ministry of Culture and Tourism, Russians are still the second largest group of foreign visitors in Turkey, accounting for 13% of total visitors. In the first eight months of the year, the largest group of foreign tourists to Turkey were Germans.

Nebti also said that several unidentified Turkish companies and individuals returned the money, sometimes in cash, the FT reports.

He added in the FTA that all revenues are legal and that Turkey "works very carefully in the international financial system. It is not a country that acts against the international financial system."

Turkey's central bank did not immediately respond to The Insider's request for details of the incoming transfer due to "clear errors and omissions."

Secret flows into Turkey are nothing new, but Ankara and Moscow are being investigated because they are friendlier. Last week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country would work with Russia "to create a natural gas plant," the Turkish news agency Anadolu reported.

Hitler wakes up and finds himself in the 21st century

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U.K.’s New Finance Chief Warns Of ‘difficult Decisions Ahead’ Amid Political And Market Turmoil

U.K.'s New Finance Chief Warns Of 'difficult Decisions Ahead' Amid Political And Market Turmoil

LONDON (AP) – Britain's new Chancellor of the Exchequer warned of "difficult decisions" on Saturday after replacing her predecessor, who was in office for just 38 days.

Jeremy Hunt told several British journalists that the tax cut promised by Prime Minister Liz Truss will not be as big as people think and that government departments will have to cut their budgets.

"Not easy decisions," Hunt warned Britain's Sky News channel. "Some taxes won't go down as fast as people want, some taxes will go up." (Sky News is owned by NBC News parent company Comcast).

He added that "all departments will need to be more efficient than expected," referring to the return to austerity promoted by successive leaders of his Conservative Party after the 2008 financial crisis.

Image: Jeremy Hunt gives a TV interview after being appointed the new British chancellor (Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images) © NBC News Image Credits . Jeremy Hunt gives a TV interview after being appointed the new chancellor of Great Britain. (Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images)

Hunt also confirmed that the UK Treasury announced that it would present the government's medium-term financial plan on 31 October.

He sent a similar message to many other British broadcasters when he tried to distance himself from his predecessor, Kwasi Kwarteng, who was sacked on Friday after a market panic sparked by his business plan unveiled last month.

Kwarteng became the second lowest Chancellor of the Exchequer, as the British Chancellor of the Exchequer is known.

Fearing that he, too, could be ousted within weeks of taking office, Truss told a press conference on Friday that he changed course "to allow the market to weaken our financial discipline."

He also sought to appease members of the Conservative Party, whose voter turnout had fallen in line with the value of the pound.

“The financial crisis that the UK is going through today was unfortunately avoidable,” George Deeb, director of the Center for Economic Justice at the Institute for Public Policy Research, a London-based think tank, told NBC News on Saturday.

Earlier this month, after repeatedly rejecting any proposals to change course, the Trust turned down a proposal to cut taxes for those earning more than £150,000 ($167,000) a year.

This didn't calm the markets or legislators.

British Prime Minister Liz Truss at a press conference at the Downing Street Conference Room (DANIEL LEAL via Daniel Leal/AFP Getty Images) © DANIEL LEAL Daniel Leal British Prime Minister Liz Truss at a press conference at the Downing Street Conference Hall. (DANIEL LEAL via Daniel Leal / AFP Getty Images)

The plan included a £45bn ($50.4bn) tax cut, more than the UK's annual defense budget, but did not specify how it would be funded or what services would be cut as a result.

This proposal caused interest rates and mortgage payments to skyrocket, the value of the pound to fall, and the cost of government borrowing to rise. More details about this will be revealed at the October 31 conference, but the political and economic damage has already been done.

The Bank of England had to step in and buy billions of pounds sterling, known as pigs, from the government to calm the market. Thus, the bank warned that this is a "material risk" for the entire financial system of the United Kingdom.

On Tuesday, the bank said it intervened to stop the "forced sale." Crucially, the bank's bond buying program was due to end on Friday, meaning the government had to reassure markets that its business plan was sound enough to avoid further chaos.

The International Monetary Fund has sharply criticized the unjustified tax cuts, and economists and observers around the world doubt the wisdom of such a radical plan.

“While Kwarteng's expulsion and unwarranted tax cuts may provide some relief, it appears that they have already damaged not only the economy but also the credibility of this government,” Daibe said. he added.

While he agreed with Dib Hunt's assessment that tax increases were probably needed, he said that "after a decade of austerity, there were no further cuts in the public sector."

Rumors are already circulating that senior Conservative Party officials are plotting to overthrow the prime minister, and for Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King's College London, "the question is whether Liz Truss can survive next week."

The last two British prime ministers, Theresa May and Boris Johnson, have resigned after infighting within the Conservative Party rendered their positions untenable. Truss has been British Prime Minister for six years.

Menon added that the government's options are becoming increasingly limited, and the poor market reaction to Jeremy Hunt's media appearances leaves the British government no choice but to move on.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com.

The pound fell after the UK government announced the biggest tax cut in 50 years.

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Pakistani Finance Minister Sees Gradual Recovery From Floods

Pakistani Finance Minister Sees Gradual Recovery From Floods

WASHINGTON – Pakistan's new finance minister estimates that it will take "about three years" for the South Asian country to recover from devastating floods that have killed more than 1,700 people and displaced 7.9 million.

Ishak Dar, who took a job in finance last month for the fourth time in his career, told The Associated Press on Friday that flood damage exceeded $32 billion and that the cost of rebuilding damaged infrastructure would exceed $16 billion.

Monsoon rains, likely exacerbated by climate change, have swept Pakistan for months since mid-June, destroying or razing two million homes.

Dar said the reconstruction "can't happen overnight" and would take "probably three years", though he admitted he was "not an engineer". Last month, the World Bank pledged $2 billion in flood aid.

Dar returned to the Ministry of Finance at a difficult time for Pakistan. Moody's Investors Service downgraded the country's public debt rating this month, citing low foreign exchange reserves in Pakistan. With inflation rising to more than 20% annually, the value of the Pakistani currency, the rupee, has depreciated by 19% against the US dollar this year.

But Dar, who was famous for supporting a strong rupee during his previous tenure as finance minister, noted that the currency had recovered since returning to work; It has risen about 10% against the dollar since the end of September.

He is visiting Washington House this week to attend the fall meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The tour started well.

Unidentified persons arrested him and called him a "thief" after arriving at Dulles International Airport on Thursday.

On Friday, he denied the incident, which was recorded in the video and shared on the Internet, as the work of political opponents of the government of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. "It is clear that domestic politics has crossed the border," Dar said. "do not be".

Live from London: Bloomberg Report 12/09/2022

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Meloni Is Eyeing Giorgetti For Italys Finance Minister Post

Meloni Is Eyeing Giorgetti For Italys Finance Minister Post

Informed sources said that incoming Prime Minister Georgia Meloni is leaning towards choosing Economic Development Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti as Italy's next finance director.

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Maloney, the leader of the right-wing coalition that won last month's election, likely has until next week to form a new government. The final decision on the formation of the Cabinet has not yet been made, and its priorities may change.

Giorgetti's chances increased after European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta withdrew from the race. The people, who asked not to be named to discuss the confidential discussions, said current Finance Minister Daniele Franco, a Bank of Italy veteran, is still a possibility.

Regardless of his appointment, he will face the challenge of managing Italy's heavily indebted economy in the face of an energy crisis, rising borrowing costs and rising risks of recession. Meloni's struggle to find a world-renowned finance minister, the experience of European partners and Italian investors, left them worried about who would take the lead.

picture above

Giorgetti, 55, has been a key minister in Mario Draghi's government since 2021. He was previously a long-time League MP and remains one of its leading figures.

Meloni is scheduled to meet on Wednesday with League leader Matteo Salvini and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, his most important ally, to complete his ministerial slate. The names are expected to be presented to Italian President Sergio Mattarella in the coming days.

Representatives for Meloni and Giorgetti did not want to comment.

In addition to Franco, other names also appear in the Italian media: the former Bank of Italy official Luigi Butellione, the former Finance Minister Domenico Siniscalco, the Italian chief accountant Biagio Mazzuta.

Had Giorgetti accepted the position, it would have been a victory for the League, but not for its leader Matteo Salvini, who often clashed with the more moderate Giorgetti. The association is proposing significant tax cuts and deficit increases to protect the economy from the energy crisis.

youth movement

Giorgetti holds a degree in Business Administration from Milan's Baconi University and was an accountant before he was elected to Parliament in 1996. Since then, he has twice chaired the Budget Committee of the Chamber of Deputies, as well as serving as Deputy Secretary of the government of five-star leader Giuseppe Conte.

In the 1980s, Giorgetti was part of the far-right youth movement Front della Giovinto, linked to the Italian Movimento Sociale, the same political organization Meloni joined in the 1990s.

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Debt Costs Overshadow Climate Finance In Small Island Statesreport

Debt Costs Overshadow Climate Finance In Small Island Statesreport

LONDON, 11 Oct (Reuters) – Small island developing countries, hard hit by climate change and often in debt, are spending at least 18 times what they owe on climate finance.

A report by the European Debt and Development Network (Eurodad) found that 37 island and coastal countries, home to around 65 million people, received a total of $ 1.5 billion in climate finance between 2016 and 2020.

Yolanda Fresnillo, one of the authors of the report, writes that countries from the Dominican Republic to Samoa "urgently need to increase their financial capacity to face multiple challenges and crises".

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Eurodad's report, which includes more than 50 NGOs, says 22 countries returned more than $ 26.6 billion to their foreign creditors over the same period.

According to the report, the level of the islands' public debt has risen from an average of 66% of gross domestic product in 2019 to nearly 83% in 2020 and will remain above 70% until 2025.

Other countries have sought assistance from the International Monetary Fund, with the number of countries with programs increasing from three in 2019 to 20 in 2020 and 2021.

In June, the foundation's board of directors approved a $ 60 million program for Cape Verde, and Barbados signed a $ 293 million deal in late September.

The report says more than 80% of the islands are in debt, according to the IMF and World Bank's debt sustainability analysis or criteria set by civil society groups Debt Justice UK and Jubilee Germany.

This week, as policymakers from around the world gather for the annual IMF and World Bank meeting in Washington through October, the debate will be on how to support small and fragile economies facing the fallout from COVID-19 and of Russia. war in Ukraine. sixteen.

However, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made debt restructuring a top priority, senior Treasury officials said Tuesday that they do not expect any major progress on debt this week.

Some researchers also note that decision making at the IMF has run into difficulties. They say the quota system, which is based on the size of the economy, means that low- and middle-income countries, which are more likely to borrow, have little influence on the decisions of lenders.

"When poor public finances spend more on debt service than investment to build a more resilient economy, countries will enter a debt cycle exacerbated by an unsustainable climate," writes Lara Merling of the Climate Policy Center. Boston University "Global Development Studies" article. was released on Tuesday.

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Reporting by Karin Stroker and Andrea Shallal from Washington. Curated by Michael Perry and Tomasz Janowski

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President Biden and Vice President Harris speak at the Climate Leaders Summit – April 22, 2021

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This Week In Finance News: 7 Stories You Need To See

This Week In Finance News: 7 Stories You Need To See

Brief report on the most important press releases for the financial sector. Breaking news of the week from PR Newswire

NEW YORK , Oct. 7, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — With thousands of press releases each week, it can be difficult to keep track of everything on PR Newswire. To help journalists covering the financial industry stay up-to-date with the most popular and popular press releases this week, here are this week's highlights.

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Click on the press release title below to read this week's top financial news and downloadable media.

  • Clorox released its FY22 Integrated Annual Report, which highlights progress on ESG development, transformation and strategic objectives.
  • Introducing Waves School, the world's first free crypto school
  • A survey found a correlation between the wage W-4 form and the highest salary
  • TD Bank expands into home furnishings, announces new financing partnership with luxury retailer RH
  • Flooding is hurting home buyers.
  • Abu Dhabi Police State Work: 208,000 employees in September; Annual wages increased by 7.8%.
  • According to a personal equity survey, Americans think home prices will rise more than fall
  • Read about the latest financial reports from PR Newswire and stay up to date with the most important press releases by following PRNfinance on Twitter.

    Helping journalists stay up-to-date with industry news
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    The best financial news and stories for the week ending February 18, with sections – a selection of the most important news and events.

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    He Raked In $990,000 Playing In The NFL Last Year, Teaches Finance At UPenn, And Interned At UBS. And Hes Got A Simple Piece Of Money Advice We All May Need To Hear Right Now.

    He Raked In 0,000 Playing In The NFL Last Year, Teaches Finance At UPenn, And Interned At UBS. And Hes Got A Simple Piece Of Money Advice We All May Need To Hear Right Now.

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    NFL midfielder Brandon Copeland made $990,000 in the NFL last year, according to CBS Sports, but that's not the coolest thing about him. He also built a financial empire called Copeland Media, serving as CEO and overseeing the company's financial advisory firm, Cascade Consulting Group. While at the University of Pennsylvania, he interned at UBS and has since returned to his alma mater to teach a course in financial education. And two years ago, he added Kiplinger collaborators to his resume.

    One of his tips that seems especially important right now – with the recession going on and some savings accounts paying more than they have been since 2009 (see the best savings account rates you can find here) – is that you need an emergency fund. . Here's what other experts recommend and what other experts say.

    "A healthy emergency fund usually has three to six months of salary or living expenses, but as always, you need to assess your situation and save as much as possible," Copeland says. (Copeland reportedly keeps most of his salary to himself.) He says an emergency fund can help with medical problems, job loss, debt relief, and more.

    What are the experts saying now about emergency money?

    Dana Jacobs, a certified financial planner at Legacy Care Wealth, agrees that an emergency fund for 3-6 months of expenses is essential for a financially healthy family. “Typically, we put those savings in high-interest savings accounts so our clients can get a little more out of the funds,” says Jacobs. Find out the best savings account rates you can get here. Find out the best savings account rates you can get here.

    If you're a two-income family, says Jacobs, you can usually access a small emergency fund because you have extra income to cover possible job losses. But dependents, those with regular jobs, or those with only one income tend to save more.

    "Having a lot of money to withdraw gives you a lot of flexibility, and there's real peace of mind knowing that if disaster strikes, you'll be fine. It's better to have too much money than not enough," says Keith Spencer, a certified financial planner at Spencer. Financial Planning.

    If the recommended reserve amount seems out of reach for the family, certified financial planner Paul Collinson of Legacy Planning Advisors recommends dividing the money into more accessible areas. “Aim to build up a month's worth of reserves every 3-6 months until you reach the recommended number of months, perhaps. "The bottom line is that it's important to empower family members when setting desired goals, such as setting up an emergency fund in a few months or years," Collinson says.

    And remember that this number can be liquid. "If you pay for child care now, it's definitely covered, but maybe not in a few years," says certified financial planner Christina Guglielmetti of Future Perfect Planning.

    A high school soccer player was killed in the attack

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    Financial Influencers: How A Plumber’s Son Became A Finance Entrepreneur

    Financial Influencers: How A Plumber's Son Became A Finance Entrepreneur

    © Provided by TheStreet

    Alex Morris helps investors know when to wait and when to bet on success.

    In the modern era, social media has created many new and exciting job opportunities for those with an entrepreneurial spirit. From the science of baker's yeast to trading stocks for personal gain, if you're knowledgeable and committed, going public is just a few clicks away.

    That's a lesson Alex Morris learned. Morris currently runs his own website, The Science of Hitting, and a Twitter account where he chats with his 45.5k followers about today's stocks and more. He took the name of his website from the title of a book recommended by Warren Buffett. Written by baseball player Ted Williams, the book's philosophy was to wait for the right strike before swinging.

    But Morris wasn't always on track to become a finance professional. In fact, he went to college and considered studying civil engineering. After all, his father was a plumber. he told TheStreet that he feels he belongs next to his father in the family business.

    While Morris was in college, he began to suspect that becoming a plumber was out of the question. He had a "slight entrepreneurial bent" and joked that advanced physics classes helped him realize he was out of his cockpit.

    Around this time, Morris, with his eyes set on an unknown future, began sharing some of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK.A ) articles – Get Berkshire Hathaway Inc. the report . In 2007, he and some of his friends were inspired to start a company similar to StubHub, but for college events. As the company grows, so does its interest in financing. It was a year and a half or two years ago that he decided to change his studies.

    Launch hits on social media

    After graduating from the University of Florida with a degree in finance, Morris was again uncertain about his future. While he dreamed of working at a hedge fund or investment firm, several interviewers told him the same thing. he needs CFA or MBA to get a good job in this field. He said at the time he felt like he was struggling to figure out how to get to the next level.

    Morris got work as a writer for several financial websites such as Find Alpha and Guru Focus while working on his CFA and MBA. And after nearly a decade of writing, he found it very useful for developing his ideas. He can also use his readers as a sounding board for his own ideas, which he has found very useful.

    About five years ago, he began tweeting his writing and stock market ideas under a pseudonym. There, he says, he found an interactive community. As the world turned upside down in April 2020 and kept many of us safe online, Morris noticed many writers turning to paid newsletter content. After spending a year building his website, online presence and follower base, Morris was able to quit his job at an investment firm and eventually became his own boss. Today he writes the TSOH Investment Research Service newsletter and has hundreds of paying subscribers.

    Social media is essential to this business

    Morris is clearly a big fan of using social media to learn about the financial landscape. His face lights up when he talks about how the financial industry has evolved over the years. When he began his journey, the approach was very narrow. You can become an analyst or manage your own fund, but there are no obvious alternatives.

    With resources like Twitter and Substack, it's now easy for experts like Morris to chart their course. New generations of traders can take the traditional route and make it their own business, which Morris clearly sees as an exciting prospect. As the industry evolves, technology is a valuable resource for enterprising people looking at the financial world from a different perspective.

    Morris is also a big fan of this less-traveled route. You make friends with people,” he happily told TheStreet. "In a sense, they have become your colleagues. If you are interested in a specific job, you can ask people who are professionals in that field."

    Morris emphasizes that he likes answering questions very much. Their content is perfect for all types of followers, from budding DIYers to people who have been on Wall Street for a while. He jokes that Twitter allows him to gauge the opinions of people "smarter than me."

    Symbolic worship. Evangelism and Personal Finance, Part Two

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    Live News Updates: OECD Cuts Global Forecasts And Predicts Fullyear Recession In Europe

    If a severe winter exacerbates energy shortages in the region, a recession that could slow global growth awaits next year, the OECD has warned.

    In its semi-annual economic outlook published last Monday, the Paris-based agency projected global output growth of 3 percent in 2022 – half of what it saw in 2021 – and cut its 2023 growth forecast from 0.6 percent to 2 percent. 2 percent.

    The OECD previously said it expects the global economy to slow and remain in recession following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February.

    The steep decline was driven by forecasts for the US economy, which is now expected to grow 1.5% this year – lower than the percentage predicted in June – and 0.5% in 2023.

    The agency highlighted that the shortage of oil from Russia to Europe could be "worse" than expected.

    EU gas reserves, even at current levels of 80-90% of capacity, may not be enough to get through a normal winter without falling to dangerously low levels, the OECD said.

    The cold winter could worsen supply shortages as Russia fails to secure supplies outside the EU as expected, leading to a "significant spike" in world prices.

    If the EU fails to find alternative sources of supply and systematically reduce gas demand, the shortages "could raise global energy prices, undermine confidence and financial stability and require a temporary moderation in business gas use," the OECD said. .

    The combination of shocks will push European economic growth above the OECD's baseline forecast of 1.25 percent in 2023 and inflation above 1.5 percent, sending many countries into recession for a year.

    Global growth will be 0.5 percent lower and inflation 0.5 percent higher.

    World Economic Outlook, April 2022.